Carlos Alcaraz takes on Daniil Medvedev in the 2023 Wimbledon gentlemen’s singles semifinals. Our 2023 Wimbledon odds series has our Carlos Alcaraz Daniil Medvedev prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Carlos Alcaraz Daniil Medvedev.
What a deliciously fascinating matchup this is: Two of the world’s top three players meet for the chance to very likely face Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s Wimbledon final. That’s intriguing enough in its own right, but what makes the matchup even more mysterious and compelling is that both Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are in their first Wimbledon semifinal. Neither man had reached this round in previous appearances at The All-England Club. Both are major champions, having won each of the past two U.S. Opens — Medvedev in 2021, Alcaraz in 2022. Both men have reached the semifinals at three major tournaments. The Australian Open is the one major where Alcaraz has not reached the semis. The French Open is the one major where Medvedev hasn’t cracked the final four. These are two highly-accomplished players, but this is new territory for them at Wimbledon village. Anything seems possible here.
Here are the Carlos Alcaraz-Daniil Medvedev 2023 Wimbledon odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 Wimbledon Odds: Carlos Alcaraz-Daniil Medvedev Odds
Alcaraz -4.5: -102
Medvedev +4.5: -130
Carlos Alcaraz: -275
Daniil Medvedev: +220
To win first set
Total Games Won
Alcaraz over 21.5 games: -110
Alcaraz under 21.5 games: -120
Medvedev over 19.5 games: -104
Medvedev under 19.5 games: -130
How To Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
Time: 25 minutes after the end of semifinal No. 1 (Jannik Sinner-Novak Djokovic) — reasonable estimate: 11:00 a.m. ET/8:00 a.m. PT
*Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Carlos Alcaraz Could Cover The Spread
The spread of 4.5 games seems about right. Alcaraz has been good at this Wimbledon tournament, but not spectacular. He lost a set to Nicolas Jarry in the third round and then Matteo Berrettini in the fourth round. However, the fact that Alcaraz has struggled at times makes him a more battle-tested player heading into this semifinal. Grass is not Alcaraz’s most comfortable surface, but the No. 1 seed appears to be learning and growing. He is gaining an awareness of how to play on the surface, realizing which shots and combinations work for him. This process of learning wasn’t going to happen in one or two matches; Alcaraz has needed all five Wimbledon matches to gain firmer footing and develop confidence on this surface. We could see him unleash the full arsenal of weapons against Medvedev, who wobbled in the quarterfinals against Chris Eubanks on Wednesday and was four points from defeat (at 3-3 in the fourth-set tiebreaker) before recovering to win in five sets. Alcaraz clearly has a higher ceiling than Medvedev. If he wins this match in straight sets, with two of the sets being decided by at least two games, he would cover. A 6-4, 7-6, 7-5 win, for example, would cover for Alcaraz. He would win 20 games to Medvedev’s 15 if that was the final scoreline. That seems very realistic.
Why Daniil Medvedev Could Cover The Spread
Medvedev trailed Eubanks two sets to one but then responded brilliantly in the fourth-set tiebreaker and in the fifth set. That is how an elite player faces a challenge. Alcaraz will not hit the ball harder than Eubanks did. Medvedev will have time behind the baseline to prepare for his shots, though Alcaraz loves to hit the drop shot and lure players to the net. Medvedev is quick enough to retrieve those drop shots and not allow Alcaraz’s variety to overwhelm him.
Keep in mind that if Medvedev pushes this match into a fourth set — even if he loses — it will be hard for him to not cover the spread. If Medvedev loses 6-4, 5-7, 7-6, 6-4, the total games would be 24 for Alcaraz, 21 for Medvedev. Medvedev would cover. If you think this match will go at least four sets, you should take Medvedev against the spread.
Final Carlos Alcaraz-Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Pick
This match will go at least four sets. Therefore, Medvedev against the spread is a good play. Medvedev over 19.5 games is also a good play.
Final Carlos Alcaraz-Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Pick: Medvedev +4.5 games
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